US Jobs Shift Accelerates: High-Risk AI Roles Fall 4%, Low-Risk Jobs Surge 13% Since 2019
Employment in AI-exposed roles like economists and graphic designers declined over 4% between 2019 and 2025, while electricians and teachers gained 13%.
US Employment Divergence Widens Along AI Substitution Lines
The European Central Bank has documented a stark divergence in US employment patterns between 2019 and 2025, driven by exposure to artificial intelligence substitution risk.
Jobs classified as having high AI substitution risk—including economists and graphic designers—declined on average by more than 4% over the six-year period. By contrast, roles with low substitution risk, such as electricians and high school teachers, increased by 13%.
Shifting Composition of the US Labour Force
This employment divergence has reshaped the overall composition of US employment. The share of low-risk jobs in total employment rose from 23% to 25%, while the share of high-risk jobs fell from 35% to 33% between 2019 and 2025.
Overall, jobs with high AI substitution risk grew by around 15 percentage points less than jobs with low substitution risk during this period.
ChatGPT Effect Accelerating Change
The European Central Bank notes that the impact of AI on employment growth has accelerated since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, suggesting the pace of this occupational shift is intensifying.
Wage Growth Unaffected—So Far
Despite these employment shifts, AI substitution risk has had no significant impact on wage growth since 2019 in the United States, according to the ECB analysis.
EU Context: Productivity Without Job Loss in the Short Term
In the European Union, firms adopting AI technologies are experiencing higher productivity gains without the technology replacing labour in the short term, according to ECB findings. Moreover, firms with high levels of AI adoption or AI-related investment are more likely to employ additional staff.
However, AI is negatively affecting employment for specific occupational sub-groups, particularly junior workers in highly exposed occupations, indicating that the technology’s impact varies significantly across career stages and sectors.
Source: European Central Bank
Developments since publication
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AI adoption increases labour productivity levels by 4% on average in the EU, with no evidence of reduced employment in the short run. Source
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Study analyzed AI adoption effects across more than 12,000 European firms. Source
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Medium and large firms in the EU experience substantially stronger productivity gains from AI adoption than smaller firms. Source
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An extra percentage point of investment in software and data infrastructure increases AI's productivity effect by 2.4 percentage points in EU firms. Source
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An additional percentage point spent on workforce training amplifies AI's productivity gains by 5.9 percentage points in EU firms. Source
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45% of large EU firms (more than 250 employees) have deployed AI, compared with only 24% of small firms (10 to 49 employees). Source
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In financially developed EU countries such as Sweden and the Netherlands, around 36% of firms use big data analytics and AI in 2024. Source
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In less financially developed EU economies such as Romania and Bulgaria, AI adoption rates are around 28% in 2024. Source
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