ESRI Study: 7% of Irish Jobs at Risk from AI Adoption, with Inequality Set to Rise
New ESRI research shows AI could displace 7% of Irish jobs in the short-to-medium term, concentrated among high-skilled workers, with income inequality likely to increase.
Job Displacement Risk Concentrated Among High-Skilled Workers
A new study from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) found that around 7% of current jobs in Ireland could be displaced in the short-to-medium term due to AI adoption.
Crucially, job losses from AI adoption in Ireland are concentrated among highly educated workers, reflecting the strong exposure of high-skilled occupations to AI technologies. The ESRI report highlights that occupations facing higher levels of job losses include information and communications technicians, customer service clerks and clerical support workers.
In contrast, roles that are customer-facing or physically demanding face little risk of substitution from AI, including health professionals, agricultural workers, builders and refuse workers.
Income Inequality Expected to Rise
An ESRI and Department of Finance joint report found that AI adoption in Ireland is likely to lead to moderate increases in income inequality. Karina Doorley of the ESRI stated that income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, is likely to rise in any AI adoption scenario as job losses and wage and capital income increases result in income polarisation.
Fiscal Impact Depends on Scale of Job Displacement
The ESRI report concluded that if employment losses are small or reallocation of workers is fast, Exchequer revenue may increase due to productivity gains. However, if job displacement is large, income tax receipts will fall and welfare spending will rise.
Global Context
Ireland’s experience mirrors broader concerns internationally. Joseph Briggs, Senior Global Economist at Goldman Sachs, estimates that more than 9 per cent of the labour force, or around 15 million workers in the United States, could be displaced during a 10-year AI transition.
However, not all experts predict severe employment impacts. Daron Acemoglu, Institute Professor at MIT and Nobel laureate in Economics, expects AI to have only a modest net negative impact on employment over the next five years. Neil Thompson, Director of the FutureTech research project at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, stated that reliability, access to data, costs and practical deployment remain major constraints on AI adoption.
Source: RTÉ (reporting ESRI study)
Developments since publication
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In 2024, 25% of service firms and 16% of manufacturers surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported using AI. Source
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In 2025, 40% of service firms and 26% of manufacturers surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported using AI. Source
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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's regional survey found that while AI adoption is rising quickly across industries, firms report very few AI-driven layoffs. Source
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New York Fed regional survey data indicate that firms anticipate more reductions in hiring plans going forward, especially for college-educated workers, as a result of AI adoption. Source
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New York Fed survey data show that some firms are reducing hiring because AI automates tasks, while others are increasing hiring for AI-proficient workers. Source
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New York Fed firms surveyed overwhelmingly intend to retrain workers rather than fire them as they adopt AI. Source
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A New York Fed study published in October 2024 found that individuals exposed to generative AI tools appeared to hold bleaker expectations for job availability and income inequality. Source
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The ESRI report on AI and income inequality in Ireland was co-published by the ESRI and the Department of Finance. Source
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In the ESRI's central scenario, around 7% of current jobs in Ireland could be displaced in the short-to-medium run due to AI adoption. Source
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Unlike previous waves of technological change, AI tends to place higher-earning and highly educated workers at greater risk of disruption, because the occupations most exposed to AI are predominantly Source
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Those most likely to experience AI-driven job displacement in Ireland are found in higher income households, where the share of workers transitioning into unemployment is substantially larger than in Source
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The ESRI estimates that workers in Ireland who are not displaced by AI may see modest but broadly shared wage gains, but these gains are not large enough to counterbalance the average fall in income d Source
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Increases in returns to capital as a result of AI adoption in Ireland benefit households at the very top of the income distribution, where the vast majority of Ireland's capital income is concentrated Source
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The ESRI finds an average decline in household disposable income in Ireland as a result of AI adoption, with the largest average losses experienced by middle and higher income households. Source
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Ireland's tax and welfare system absorbs most of the income loss for lower income households, and roughly half of the loss for households at the top of the income distribution. Source
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Income inequality in Ireland, measured by the Gini index, rises moderately in every scenario examined by the ESRI due to the polarising effect of AI-driven job losses and wage and capital income incre Source
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The ESRI warns that if AI accelerates the shift from labour income to capital income in Ireland, the current heavy reliance on labour taxation may become increasingly difficult to sustain. Source
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The ESRI used SWITCH, its microsimulation model, to investigate the potential distributional effects of AI adoption in Ireland by linking AI adoption scenarios to the Irish tax-benefit system. Source
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The ESRI report was authored by Karina Doorley, Sorcha O'Connor, Richard O'Shea, and Dora Tuda. Source